تحليل اتجاهات التغير في درجة الحرارة الصغرى ببلدية غات  للفترة 1981- 2100

علي مصطفى سليم; فاطمة صالح أبشير

Authors

Ali Mustafa Salim Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata Author
Fatima Saleh Ibshir Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata Author

Keywords:

Trend analysis, Simple Linear Regression, Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), RCP8.5 scenario, GHAT Municipality

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the general trends of minimum temperature in the Municipality of GHAT through the analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual trends over the period 2004–2025, in addition to future climate projections extending to the year 2100. The study employs the Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) to simulate future minimum temperature based on outputs from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.Trend analysis was conducted using Simple Linear Regression, the t-test, Moving Averages, and One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The results indicate a statistically significant upward trend (p < 0.05) in seasonal and annual minimum temperatures during the historical period (1981–2025), favoring the latter part of the study period. Furthermore, future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario reveal a statistically significant positive trend (p < 0.005), with minimum temperature expected to increase by approximately 1.30 °C by the end of the century (2071–2100), relative to the baseline period. These findings are broadly consistent with projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Author Biographies

Ali Mustafa Salim, Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata

Ali Mustafa Salim

a.salim@edu.misuratau.edu.ly

Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata
Fatima Saleh Ibshir, Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata

Fatima Saleh Ibshir

fatimaebshier@gmail.com

Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, University of Misurata

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